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Trade4go
Aug 15th, 2025
Original content
Argentina’s beef exports to China are at risk due to the tariff dispute between Brazil and the United States (US). With the US imposing an additional 50% tariff on Brazilian beef, exports to that market have become unviable. Due to that, Brazil is expected to redirect significant volumes to China. This could lead China to reduce purchases from Argentina and Uruguay, pressuring their export volumes and prices. The recent 75% reduction in Argentina’s beef export duties is seen as a positive but largely symbolic step, with calls for their eventual elimination. Currently focused on high-value cuts priced at between USD 10,700 per metric ton (mt) and USD 11,000/mt, Argentina’s beef exports to the US may benefit from a potential quota expansion, though no official agreement has been confirmed. Meanwhile, China has extended its investigation into beef import practices until November 26, 2025, raising the possibility of new quotas or tariffs. The delay offers temporary relief for Mercosur suppliers, except Paraguay, which is excluded from the Chinese market. However, uncertainty remains as Brazilian beef displaced from the US seeks alternative destinations, likely increasing competition in China.
According to the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea), Brazil’s beef exports, including fresh and processed, reached 310.2 thousand mt, valued at USD 1.70 billion (BRL 9.2 billion) in Jul-25. This represents a 15.3% month-on-month (MoM) increase in volume and 4% above the previous record set in Oct-24. While shipments to the US edged up to 18.24 thousand mt, its share of total exports fell from 6.8% in Jun-25 to 5.9% in Jul-25. Whereas, China increased purchases by 14.8% MoM, raising its share to 51.1%. The shift reflects Brazil’s response to the new 50% US tariff, with exporters boosting sales to other markets and reallocating US-bound supply through operations in tariff-exempt countries. Arab nations have also emerged as a key growth opportunity, with the Arab-Brazilian Chamber of Commerce identifying 13 major Brazilian products, many linked to agribusiness, that could replace US-bound exports or expand current sales across the 22 Arab League countries.
Paraguay’s beef exports reached 349.73 thousand mt, valued at USD 1.305 billion in the first half of 2025 (H1-2025), up 18% year-on-year (YoY) in value. Chile was the leading market, accounting for 32% of beef exports, followed by Taiwan with 14% and the US with 11%. Growth momentum is expected to continue in the second half, driven by new market access in Singapore and the Philippines, along with a scheduled Japanese audit in Sep-25 to assess animal health standards. US auditors are also conducting post-authorization inspections one year after approving Paraguayan beef. The sector is closely monitoring the potential effects of the US’ 50% import tariff on Brazilian beef, which could influence Paraguayan trade flows.
Peru’s beef sector, with a cattle population of nearly 5.9 million heads and 202.09 thousand mt of production in 2024, is dominated by regions such as Huánuco, Puno, Cajamarca, Lima, Ayacucho, and Cusco. Despite strong livestock activity, per capita beef consumption remains low at 6.11 kilograms (kg), well below the South American average, highlighting growth potential in the domestic market. The industry is highly fragmented, with 85% of producers holding fewer than 10 head of cattle, and faces challenges in productivity, infrastructure, traceability, and small-scale marketing capacity.
In 2024, Peru imported 6.78 thousand mt of beef, mainly from Brazil, the US, and Argentina, while exports were minimal at just 13.28 mt, largely to international cruise ships. To strengthen competitiveness and reduce reliance on imports, a proposed national strategy focuses on creating an institutional beef brand, training producer organizations, promoting consumption through media campaigns, improving animal health and certifications, and fostering direct market access. This integrated approach aims to boost domestic consumption, enhance quality standards, and position Peruvian beef, especially differentiated, sustainable, Andean-origin products, in both local and international markets.
In W32, Brazil’s wholesale price for boneless rear beef increased by 4.07% week-on-week (WoW), reaching USD 4.60/kg. This price also represented a 1.32% YoY rise, despite a 1.08% MoM decline. The weekly price uptick is largely attributed to higher beef consumption, driven by Father’s Day celebrations and early-month salary disbursements. According to Safras and Mercado, this upward trend is expected to persist in the short term, supported by strong consumption potential during the first half of the month. Nevertheless, the competitiveness of alternative proteins, particularly chicken, remains a significant factor influencing market dynamics. In the physical market, beef prices rose throughout the week, mainly due to shortened slaughter schedules, which were especially pronounced in smaller slaughterhouses.
In W32, Australia’s National Young Cattle Indicator (NYCI) rose to USD 2.93/kg, reflecting gains of 6.16% WoW, 14.90% MoM, and 28.51% YoY. According to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), the national cattle market was mixed, though overall supply remained steady. Yardings increased 16% WoW to 59.39 thousand heads, with growth observed in all states except Western Australia, where numbers more than halved. Most market indicators strengthened compared to the previous week, driven by competition between northern and southern processors. Notably, all non-cow indicators reached their highest levels since the 2022−2023 summer, while the processor and dairy cow indicators declined slightly but still maintained very high averages. A boost in southern market confidence intensified competition between feeder and restocker heifer buyers, lifting both the feeder heifer indicator and the restocker heifer indicator.
In W32, US lean beef (92% to 94%) averaged USD 9.56/kg, reflecting increases of 0.31% WoW, 0.84% MoM, and 10.27% YoY. The price rise is primarily attributed to the seasonal high beef consumption during summer. This is coupled by supply constraints caused by a shrinking cattle herd, recent tariff hikes, particularly affecting Brazilian beef, and US-Mexico border closures due to the screw-worm outbreak. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the total US cattle inventory stood at 94.2 million heads as of July 1, including 28.7 million beef cattle. This marks a slight recovery from Jan-25 figures, when total cattle numbered 86.7 million, including 27.9 million beef cattle. However, the current inventory remains 1% below the Jul-23 levels.
Recent tariffs introduced in Aug-25, including a 50% increase on Brazilian beef and a 35% tariff on Canadian goods outside the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA), are expected to affect beef trade flows. Additionally, ongoing border closures with Mexico due to the screw-worm outbreak are likely to further disrupt supply. Despite these challenges, alternative suppliers such as Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, and Uruguay stand to benefit, as they continue to operate under a 10% baseline tariff implemented in Apr-25.
In W32, Argentina’s average steer beef price rose 0.89% WoW to USD 2.27/kg, marking a 7.58% YoY increase despite a 1.30% MoM decline. The weekly gain reflects a short-term boost in demand, while the annual rise indicates a modest recovery in beef consumption following the historic lows recorded in 2024. In Jun-25, Argentina’s per capita beef consumption reached 50.1 kg annually, up 5.2% YoY and approaching 2021 levels of 49.3 kg. By comparison, the 2024 average was just 47.7 kg per person, a 9% decline from 2023 and the second-lowest level in history, surpassed only by 1920.
Argentina should actively expand its export footprint beyond China to reduce dependency on a single buyer vulnerable to shifts in Brazilian trade flows. Targeting premium beef segments in high-value markets such as the US, the European Union (EU), Japan, and the Middle East can help offset potential losses in volume sales to China. Accelerating negotiations for expanded US quotas and securing preferential access agreements with emerging markets will strengthen resilience. Simultaneously, continuing the gradual elimination of export duties will improve competitiveness and incentivize production growth.
Brazil should solidify its diversification push by locking in long-term supply contracts with China and Arab League countries, ensuring stable demand in the face of US tariffs. Leveraging its established logistics network, exporters can prioritize high-margin cuts for premium markets while channeling volume cuts to large-scale buyers in Asia and the Middle East. Strategic marketing campaigns highlighting Brazilian beef’s quality, safety, and sustainability credentials in the Arab region could transform temporary demand spikes into sustained market share gains.
With momentum from new approvals in Singapore and the Philippines, Paraguay should accelerate compliance with Japanese and US audit requirements to secure lasting access to these premium markets. Strengthening animal health, traceability systems, and cold-chain infrastructure will reinforce its image as a reliable supplier. Proactively engaging with markets indirectly affected by US tariffs on Brazil, such as China and the Middle East, can create openings for both volume and value growth, especially while competitors are adjusting trade flows.
Peru’s priority should be boosting local consumption through sustained public campaigns promoting beef’s nutritional value and culinary versatility, supported by competitive pricing strategies. Parallel investment in farmer training, quality certifications, and animal health programs will lay the groundwork for future export readiness. In the medium term, Peru can position its beef as a differentiated product, emphasizing Andean origin, sustainability, and small-producer stories, for niche markets willing to pay premiums, such as specialty importers in Asia, Europe, and North America.
Sources: Tridge, Agromeat, AgroPeru, Bichos de campo, Canal Rural
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