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Trade4go
Aug 15th, 2025
Original content
In the first five weeks of the 2025/26 season (July 1–August 3), European Union (EU) oilseed exports fell by 36% year-on-year (YoY) to 28.09 thousand metric tons (mt). Despite that, soybeans stood out as the only crop to record growth, with shipments surging 145% YoY to 10.40 thousand mt. Hungary led soybean exports with 5.80 thousand mt, far surpassing other member states. In contrast, exports of rapeseed and sunflower seeds dropped 70% YoY and 40% YoY, respectively. The broader oilseed product segment also saw declines, with soybean oil exports plunging 62% YoY to 22 thousand mt, despite the Netherlands remaining the largest supplier. Soybean meal exports also fell 29% YoY to 33.15 thousand mt. This highlights soybeans’ unique export momentum amid an overall decline in EU oilseed trade early in the season.
In Jul-25, Brazil’s soybean exports surged 9% YoY to 12.3 million metric tons (mmt), driven by record Chinese purchases, up 18.5% YoY. This solidified Brazil’s position as China’s top supplier and displaced the United States (US) despite a 7.1% YoY drop in average prices. Brazil’s 2025/26 harvest is forecast at a record 177.2 mmt, with exports projected at 110 mmt. Meanwhile, US soybean prices remain under pressure from improved harvest prospects and uncertainty over Chinese demand, with Nov-25 Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures down 7.6% YoY. Despite China’s record imports in Jul-25 and strong forecasts for Aug-25–Sep-25, a domestic soybean meal surplus from heavy deliveries and weaker livestock demand is weighing on local prices, raising concerns over a temporary supply–demand imbalance.
China’s soybean imports hit a record 11.67 mmt in Jul-25, up 18.5% YoY and well above market expectations, as the country accelerates purchases amid ongoing trade tensions with the US. This surge reflects China’s strategy to build strategic reserves and diversify supply sources, opening new opportunities for exporters such as Ukraine and Argentina. While Brazil remains the dominant supplier, Argentina is gaining traction with competitive soybean meal exports following reduced export duties. The push for diversified procurement aligns with China’s food security goals, though global biodiesel sector weakness, particularly in Argentina, continues to limit export demand for soybean-based fuels. Overall, robust Chinese demand is reshaping trade flows, reinforcing soybeans’ central role in both commodity markets and geopolitical strategies.
The Ukrainian soybean market is facing a tense outlook as most of the old harvest has already been sold, leaving only limited stocks available. Adverse weather conditions, including late frosts, excessive precipitation, and flooding in central and western regions, have stressed crops and delayed vegetation, potentially postponing the start of the new harvest until mid-Sep-25. Current prices for the new crop stand at USD 390/mt–USD 395/mt for genetically modified organisms (GMO) soybeans and USD 420/mt–USD 425/mt for non-GMO varieties. Combined with projected reductions in overall yields and uncertainties caused by incomplete farm-level reporting, these challenges are tightening the supply-demand balance. This is creating upward pressure on oilseed prices and signaling a potentially critical period for the Ukrainian soybean market.
The US soybean crop is expected to be strong in 2025, supported by generally favorable growing conditions. However, the possibility of warmer temperatures and drought in late Aug-25 in certain regions could still limit yields. Despite the positive production outlook, export demand remains under pressure as ongoing tariff tensions and stronger competition from Brazil continue to slow sales of the new crop. Trade negotiations between the US and China are in progress, but no concrete agreements have been reached, keeping market sentiment cautious. This uncertainty is likely to persist until clearer insights into export prospects are provided. As a result, while production conditions point toward a robust harvest, the combination of potential weather challenges, competitive global supply, and unresolved trade issues will remain key factors influencing the US soybean market in the coming weeks.
In W32, Brazilian soybean prices rose 2.50% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 0.41 per kilogram (kg), marking a 5.13% month-on-month (MoM) increase and a 2.50% YoY rise. The price gains were primarily driven by strong export demand, especially shipments to China, reflecting shifting trade flows amid the US tariff hike. This export momentum comes despite a projected slight drop in Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean production to 166.56 mmt, while the total planted area is estimated at 48.13 million hectares (ha), up only 1.43% YoY, the slowest growth in nearly two decades. However, sales of the new harvest are progressing slowly. In Mato Grosso, the main producing state, only 17.5% of the 2025/26 crop had been sold by Jul-25, well below recent averages. The slowdown in sales is linked to tighter profit margins and higher input costs, particularly for fertilizers like diammonium phosphate (DAP) and urea. This has prompted producers to wait for better market conditions and favorable exchange rates, even as export demand supports upward price pressure.
In W32, US soybean prices remained steady WoW at USD 0.43/kg, but recorded a 4.44% MoM decline and a 6.52% YoY drop. This downward pressure reflects sluggish export demand, particularly from China, which is pivoting to Brazil and other suppliers amid ongoing tariff issues. Domestic prices have also been influenced by expectations of a strong 2025 crop, supported by generally favorable growing conditions. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated a record soybean yield of 53.6 bushels per acre, up 1.1 bushels from Jul-25 estimates and nearly 3 bushels above last year. However, the USDA lowered harvested acres by 2.4 million, reducing production by 43 million bushels and ending stocks by 20 million bushels to 290 million bushels. While the high yield is positive, the stocks-to-use ratio remains below 7%, and export demand, especially to China, remains the key uncertainty for the new crop balance sheet.
In W32, Argentine soybean prices remained stable WoW and MoM at USD 0.40/kg, but fell 2.44% YoY. The steady short-term price reflects a relatively calm market, while the YoY decline is linked to the end of a temporary tax break at the start of Jul-25. With the tax exemption expired, local producers have slowed sales, and with export duties returning to their original rates, overseas shipments are also expected to decline. The higher tax rate reduces the price farmers receive by about USD 30/mt, putting profitability under significant pressure. The industry has petitioned the government to extend the tax breaks, but no decision has been made yet. Without action, the slowdown in sales could become counterproductive for the sector.
In W32, Uruguay’s soybean prices remained steady WoW and MoM at USD 0.43/kg, while rising 4.88% YoY. The stable short-term price reflects a calm market, whereas the YoY increase reflects the impact of the US tariff hike, which prompted China to seek alternative suppliers, including Uruguay. As a result, Uruguayan farmers sold soybeans at parity with US prices for the first time, whereas previously their soybeans traded at a discount. While these gains highlight Uruguay’s growing role as a soybean exporter, they also come with heightened market risks.
EU exporters should capitalize on the early-season surge in soybean shipments, particularly from leading countries such as Hungary. Strengthening logistics and marketing channels to maintain this momentum can help offset the overall decline in EU oilseed exports. Additionally, targeting niche markets and exploring new trading partnerships within and outside the EU could diversify risk and sustain soybean export growth despite falling rapeseed and sunflower exports.
US and other global soybean producers should closely monitor Brazil’s growing influence in China, especially as Brazilian exports surged 9% YoY while US prices are under pressure. Strategic pricing, contract diversification, and exploring alternative markets in Asia and the Middle East can help mitigate the impact of Brazil’s dominance. Risk management tools such as futures and hedging contracts should also be employed to navigate volatile price conditions.
Exporters from Ukraine, Argentina, and other emerging suppliers should actively engage with Chinese buyers, leveraging the country’s high import demand and diversification strategy. Offering competitive pricing, reliable delivery schedules, and quality certifications can help secure long-term contracts. Additionally, monitoring regulatory and tariff developments in China is crucial to maintain market access and optimize export opportunities.
Ukrainian soybean producers and traders should prepare for potential harvest delays and limited stock availability by enhancing storage and inventory management systems. Flexible contracts and forward pricing agreements can help stabilize revenue amid price volatility. Collaboration with local authorities and agricultural cooperatives to improve field drainage, crop monitoring, and reporting accuracy will also strengthen market transparency and confidence.
Sources: Tridge, Sinor, UkrAgroConsult
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