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Trade4go
Jul 25th, 2025
Original content
According to the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), global beef consumption is projected to increase steadily over the next decade, contributing significantly to the anticipated 47.9 million metric tons (mmt) rise in global meat demand. While overall per capita meat consumption is set to grow, high-income countries are anticipated to see stagnation due to concerns over animal welfare, environmental impact, and health. Beef production growth will be partly driven by improvements in slaughter yields and animal breeding through genetic advancement, with increased carcass weights accounting for 8% of the rise in beef output. However, the expansion will also bring environmental consequences, as greenhouse gas emissions are projected to rise by 6%, though this remains below the 13% growth forecast for total meat production. China's reduced share in global meat imports, from 20% to 16%, is shifting trade dynamics, particularly affecting pork and chicken markets, while beef imports may remain firm due to supply constraints. In the short term, global beef prices are expected to rise due to restocking and limited supply, even as other meat prices decline. Despite falling feed costs, high operating expenses and persistent disease risks, such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and screwworm fly, continue to challenge the sustainability of global beef production and trade.
A recent study by the Spanish Association of Beef Cattle Producers (Asoprovac) highlights major cost and regulatory gaps between the European Union (EU) and Mercosur countries under the proposed EU-Mercosur trade agreement. The findings show that EU beef production costs are around 30% higher due to stricter regulations on animal welfare, environment, labor, and feed, rules that are often not enforced in Mercosur countries. Already facing a 5% year-on-year (YoY) decline in breeding stock and weak forecasts, Spain’s beef sector could suffer a 20% drop in production, nearly USD 1.17 billion (EUR 1 billion) in annual losses, and 12,900 job cuts within five years of the agreement. The report stresses that the assumption of equal conditions between the regions is misleading, citing disparities in farm sizes, input costs, and the use of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and growth hormones. The producers warn that the deal conflicts with EU goals of supporting local farming and call for urgent revisions to animal transport and deforestation rules that could further disadvantage EU producers.
In the first half of 2025 (H1-2025), Argentina’s beef industry experienced a mixed performance, marked by increased production and domestic consumption alongside a sharp drop in exports. Beef production rose 1.8% YoY, driven by higher slaughter rates and increased average animal weights. However, exports fell by 21.1% YoY, primarily due to reduced demand from China, Argentina’s main foreign buyer, whose share of total exports declined from 71% to 59%. Despite the export volume drop, improved global prices, especially in May-25, offset some losses, with revenue increasing by 5.6% YoY. As a result, more beef remained in the domestic market, leading to an 11.8% YoY rise in local consumption and a per capita rate of 50.1 kilograms (kg) annually, up 5.2% YoY. The industry also saw significant internal restructuring, including company mergers and a shift toward producing heavier animals for improved profitability. While this suggests short-term benefits for consumers, long-term sustainability will depend on how the market adapts to evolving global demand and domestic purchasing power.
The United States’ (US) recent decision to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian beef, raising total duties to a high of 76.4%, is set to reshape global beef trade. Expected to take effect on August 1, this tariff could push Brazil, the world’s largest beef exporter, out of the US market. With Brazil having shipped 156 thousand metric tons (mt) of beef worth USD 791 million to the US in H1-2025, the sudden tariff hike creates a void that presents both opportunity and risk for Argentina. On one hand, Argentina stands to gain US market share, especially amid talks of expanded quotas and lower tariffs. On the other hand, Brazil is likely to redirect its surplus beef to markets like China, intensifying competition for Argentina in its main export destination. This shift comes as the US increases its beef imports due to falling domestic production and restrictions on Mexican cattle. While Argentina could benefit from better prices in the US, at around USD 10,400/mt compared to between USD 5,000/mt and USD 6,000/mt in China, the country's gains may be tempered by Brazil’s aggressive push into Asian markets and ongoing uncertainty around China’s import policies. The situation underscores a pivotal moment for Argentina’s beef sector, which must balance strategic market reallocation amid tightening global competition and domestic supply constraints.
The recent US announcement to impose an additional 50% tariff on Brazilian beef products has sparked concern across Brazil's beef industry, with potential losses estimated at USD 1.3 billion in 2025 and over USD 3 billion in the following years. The US, Brazil's second-largest beef buyer after China, saw a 99.8% YoY surge in Brazilian beef imports in H1-2025. However, the new tariffs, especially steep on key products such as frozen meats, tallow, and corned beef, have already prompted some Brazilian meatpackers to halt production bound for the US, affecting jobs and market stability. Around 30 thousand mt of beef, valued at up to USD 160 million, are currently in transit, leaving exporters uncertain about their fate. While industry leaders argue that Brazil can redistribute this volume to its 160 other markets, the loss of US access is a serious setback. Industry groups are urging the Brazilian government to negotiate a postponement or reversal of the tariff, citing America’s current cattle shortage and dependence on Brazilian forequarter beef for hamburgers.
China, the world’s top beef importer, is expected to finalize its investigation in Aug-25 into alleged dumping practices impacting its domestic livestock sector. The outcome is anticipated to be the implementation of a global beef import quota using a first come, first served model, similar to Quota 481 used in Europe. This approach, driven by pressure from Chinese cattle ranchers concerned about falling local prices, would favor large, fast-exporting countries. Although China imported 2.87 mmt of beef in 2024, a figure which is expected to grow in 2025, the new quota system could disrupt current trade dynamics. A single tariff for all participants may undermine countries with preferential agreements like Australia, while Argentina and Uruguay may lose market share. With its large-scale production and rapid export capacity, Brazil stands to gain the most from this shift.
The US has once again suspended beef imports from Mexico due to concerns over the New World screwworm, a parasitic pest recently detected near the border. The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) decision follows a brief reopening of cattle imports through an Arizona port, which has now been reversed. The Mexican government criticized the move as disproportionate, arguing that a single isolated case triggered it.. While Mexican cattle prices have remained stable, market analysts warn that prolonged restrictions could lead to price drops domestically. Internationally, the suspension has already caused a surge in livestock prices and futures. In response, Mexico’s agricultural authorities have launched emergency containment efforts in northern Veracruz, deploying technicians for inspections, animal care, and epidemiological monitoring in affected areas.
With the upcoming distribution of the livelihood recovery support fund in South Korea, Korean Hanwoo beef is expected to experience a surge in demand. This reflects a broader trend toward value consumption where consumers prioritize quality and trust. This mirrors patterns seen in 2020 when disaster relief funds led to a sharp rise in Hanwoo purchases, with premium cuts like Grade 1+ sirloin surpassing USD 72.06/kg (KRW 100,000/kg). Currently, the price of Grade 1+ sirloin is about USD 10.06/100 grams (KRW 13,966/100g), around 4.4% lower than the annual average, making it more accessible. As a trusted, locally sourced product, Hanwoo aligns with the regional focus of the subsidy, supporting both consumer satisfaction and local economies. To leverage this, the Hanwoo Self-help Fund is expanding promotions beyond large marts to butcher shops and small retailers, alongside national television and radio campaigns. The Ministry of Agriculture is also backing the Cow Prize Hanwoo Discount Event, offering 25% to 30% off at 671 Hanaro Marts and other outlets to stimulate sales and ease inflation burdens.
Uruguay continues to strengthen its position in the global meat market, led by a significant surge in beef exports to the US, which reached 102.72 thousand mt, worth USD 543.1 million in H1-2025. This represents a 28.3% YoY increase in volume and a 52.9% YoY rise in value. The US remains the top destination, followed by China and the EU, with rising prices helping offset volume declines in some markets.
Meanwhile, Uruguay’s live cattle exports have supported rural development and income diversification, though the government recently suspended export permits. The country is also preparing to comply with the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) by the end of 2025, introducing stricter traceability and segregation systems to ensure environmental compliance and market access.
Domestically, meat imports rose by 23% YoY amid steady consumer demand, while local consumption dropped by 2.5% YoY. The rise in imports is seen as a response to higher demand and favorable trade conditions, especially amid potential US tariffs on Brazilian meat.
In W29, Brazil’s wholesale price for boneless rear beef fell by 2.52% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 4.65/kg, marking a 1.69% month-on-month (MoM) drop. Despite the decline, prices remained 2.20% higher YoY. The downturn reflects growing concerns within Brazil’s beef sector following the US announcement of a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports, a move that has intensified market instability. According to the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea), the announcement, coupled with sluggish domestic meat sales, has led to a sharp decline in cattle sales for slaughter and weakening prices for both live animals and beef products. Safras and Mercado report that several meatpackers have suspended exports to the US and halted production of shipments intended for the American market. The trade tensions escalated toward the end of the week, amplified by political factors. Meanwhile, meatpackers are operating with comfortable slaughter schedules, but the overall market remains fragile, with demand seasonally soft in the second half of the month. Additionally, chicken meat continues to outperform beef in price competitiveness, adding further pressure to the beef market.
Australia’s National Young Cattle Indicator (NYCI) rose to USD 2.57/kg in W29, reflecting increases of 2.80% WoW, 4.90% MoM, and 16.29% YoY. According to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), all major cattle price indicators strengthened during the week, supported by a rise in cow supply. While overall cattle yardings declined by 15.4 thousand heads, the dairy cow indicator recorded a modest increase of 72 heads. The feeder steer indicator rose, despite price drops in New South Wales (NSW), South Australia (SA), and Western Australia (WA). Gains in Queensland, particularly driven by a strong performance at the Roma saleyards, helped offset regional declines. Prices also rose in Wagga, Carcoar, and Forbes, while Tamworth and Gunnedah experienced slight declines. The heavy steer indicator also improved, with price lifts reported across NSW, Queensland, SA, Tasmania, and Victoria. However, market reports noted that most grown steers were lighter than usual and failed to reach premium price levels.
In W29, US lean beef (92% to 94%) averaged USD 9.46/kg, down 2.57% WoW, the first decline after eight straight weeks of gains. Despite that, the price is still up 4.30% MoM and 10.64% YoY. Prices remain elevated due to strong seasonal demand and tight supplies. US cattle inventory has hit its lowest level since 1952, impacted by drought. Supply has tightened further following a screwworm outbreak that temporarily halted live cattle imports from Mexico. Although exports from Sonora and Chihuahua briefly resumed, the border closed again due to renewed concerns. A 10% import tariff introduced in Apr-25, along with a planned 50% tariff on Brazilian beef from Aug-25, is expected to further restrict imports. These combined factors are likely to keep US beef prices high in the short term.
Argentina’s average steer beef price held steady WoW at USD 2.31/kg in W29, up 10.53% YoY but down 2.53% MoM. The YoY gain signals a gradual recovery in demand following the 2024 economic downturn. Beef sector indicators show stability, with Jun-25 slaughter at 1.126 million heads, unchanged MoM but up 9.2% YoY. Total H1-2025 slaughter reached 6.60 million heads, up 0.5% YoY. Female slaughter averaged 47.2% in H1-2025, slightly down YoY, suggesting early signs of herd rebuilding. Jun-25 beef bone-in production was 260.3 thousand mt, up 11.7% YoY, while H1-2025 output totaled 1.518 mmt, up 1.8% YoY. Average carcass weight in Jun-25 was 231.2 kg, 2.3% higher YoY.
Governments and producers should invest in sustainable beef production practices that align with rising consumer expectations around animal welfare and environmental protection. This includes adopting precision livestock farming, enhancing genetic efficiency, and increasing carcass weights through better feed conversion. At the policy level, subsidies or incentives for lower-emission technologies and disease control programs should be expanded. Transparent labeling around welfare and environmental impact can help maintain demand, particularly in high-income countries where consumption is stagnating due to ethical concerns.
In response to US tariffs, Brazil should negotiate a phased tariff implementation or explore quota-based compromises to preserve access. Simultaneously, Brazil should intensify market development in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, regions that value cost-competitive beef. Domestically, the government should establish a transition fund to support processors temporarily losing US access and help reroute in-transit beef stocks. Investment in value-added processing and branding can also increase margins in non-US markets.
Countries with strong domestic brands, such as South Korea’s Hanwoo beef, should intensify efforts to link premium products with public subsidies and value-based consumption trends. Strategies include cross-channel promotions, partnerships with small retailers, and storytelling campaigns around quality, traceability, and local economic impact. This drives short-term sales and reinforces long-term consumer loyalty and price resilience against cheaper imports.
Sources: Tridge, Aflnews, Agromeat, Bichos de campo, Canal Rural, Chacra Magazine
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