Tariffs, Shortages, and the $100 Avocado: The Birth of a Green Diamond

The domestic price of fresh avocados in the U.S. has surpassed $100 per carton, marking an all-time high and fueling what industry experts are calling the “Green Diamond” beyond “Green Gold”. Over the past year, wholesale prices of popular avocados have surged by more than 70%, with further volatility expected amid potential 25% tariffs on Mexico.

According to Tridge, a global agrifood market intelligence platform, U.S. importers should diversify their sourcing, looking to Peru, and Colombia for alternative supplies.

A Historic Price Surge

New data from Tridge’s Domestic Price Data reveals that as of March 17, the price of premium Hass avocados (40s) in Chicago hit $101 per carton, up from $59 per carton in the same period last year—a 71% increase.

This price point was first reached on January 6th, marking a significant milestone in avocado pricing. After a brief decline, the price hit a new high of $101 per carton on March 10th, reflecting a strong upward trend in the market, which has continued to rise since, indicating persistent demand and market pressure.

Larger avocados have seen the sharpest price hikes. Avocado sizing follows a count-based classification, with fewer avocados per box indicating larger fruit that are generally in highest demand. Size 40s avocados, which recently crossed the $100 threshold.

Mexico's Grip on the U.S. Avocado Market

Mexico is the dominant supplier of fresh avocados to the U.S., accounting for 90.76% of total imports in 2023, with a total import value of $280 million according to Tridge. Thanks to the USMCA trade agreement, Mexican avocados currently enter the U.S. duty-free. 

Avocados from Peru, Colombia, and the Dominican Republic are also tax-exempt but hold a much lower market share in the U.S. due to several factors: preference for Mexican avocados, inland transportation advantages of Mexico, and the strong presence of Mexican businesses in the southern U.S., among others.

According to Tridge, the share of avocados from these countries entering the U.S. in 2023 is as follows: Peru (5.27%), the Dominican Republic (2.37%), and Colombia (0.98%), all trailing significantly behind Mexican imports.

Preparing for the Tariff Shock

With potential Trump-era tariffs on the horizon, Tridge warns that prices could rise even further if a 25% tariff is imposed on Mexican avocados. While some industry experts believe it’s less likely that avocados will be included among the products targeted by such tariffs, uncertainty and turmoil continue to have a negative impact on price volatility, leaving the market in a state of anticipation.

Tridge advises American importers to proactively secure alternative supply channels from Peru, Colombia, and the Dominican Republic, regardless of the potential tariff imposition. Relying heavily on a single country for key products carries inherent risks, and diversification is crucial. While these avocados have predominantly been shipped to Europe(70% for Peruvian, and 65% for Colombian approx), once the market opens up, it is highly likely that a significant portion will shift to the U.S., given the geographical proximity, and shorter transit times. 

Trade turmoil is likely to persist, and amid this uncertainty, access to real-time market data and a deep understanding of market dynamics will be critical in bridging the gap for importers. The adoption of agrifood-specialized supply chain management tools and intelligence, such as Tridge Eyebook, can play a vital role in enhancing resilience during these challenging times.

About Tridge

Tridge is a global agrifood data intelligence platform providing real-time market trends, trade insights, and data-driven decision-making tools. Tridge offers Tridge Eye, a supply chain management tool that delivers real-time insights and analytics to help businesses adapt to market changes, with Tridge EyeBook, a platform for sourcing and procurement that connects businesses with suppliers, tracks trade flows, and analyzes market dynamics