New Tariffs Tighten the Net on Vietnamese Seafood and Fruit Exports

A Thriving Partnership Meets a New Hurdle

The year 2025 has been marked by a significant strengthening of economic ties between the United States (US) and Vietnam, with bilateral trade reaching new heights. This burgeoning partnership, however, now faces a critical test. The recent unveiling of a new, broad-based US tariff regime, part of a more expansive shift in American trade policy, has sent ripples of concern through Vietnamese export industries. While aimed at a wide array of goods, the policy has cast a particularly long shadow over Vietnam's thriving agri-food sector, a cornerstone of its export economy. This move introduces a sudden and significant hurdle for two of the nation's star performers, fruits and seafood, forcing a re-evaluation of growth strategies in what had become their most dynamic market.

Fruits: From Sweet Success to Sour Margins

Vietnam’s fruit export sector has rebounded in 2025, with total fruit and vegetable exports surpassing USD 3.8 billion in the first seven months and a target of a record USD 8 billion by year-end. The United States (US) has emerged as the fastest-growing market, with export turnover reaching 166% year-on-year (YoY) in the first half of 2025 (H1-25) and accounting for over 8% of total fruit and vegetable exports. Key products, such as mango, dragon fruit, coconut, and processed juices, are driving this growth, with coconut prices, for example, increasing from USD 1.21 per kilogram (kg) in 2022 to USD 7.26/kg in 2025. However, the newly imposed 15–20% US tariff on Vietnamese fruits threatens to erode this momentum. With margins already tight due to logistics and compliance costs, the tariff could make Vietnamese fruit less competitive, potentially slowing US-bound shipments and prompting exporters to accelerate diversification into other high-value markets, such as the European Union (EU), Japan, and South Korea.

The likely result will mean that US importers may reduce orders, shift sourcing to other countries, or demand price concessions from Vietnamese suppliers. For growers and processors in Vietnam, this means tighter margins, potential oversupply in the domestic market, and a renewed urgency to diversify export destinations, such as the EU, the Middle East, or Northeast Asia, where tariffs may be lower or market access is improving.

Figure 1. Fresh Mango Export Price Trend from Vietnam

Source: Tridge Eye

Seafood: Navigating Choppy Waters

Vietnam’s seafood industry, with an export value of over USD 10 billion in 2024, also faces significant headwinds from the new US tariff regime. The US typically absorbs 15–20% of Vietnam’s seafood exports, valued at up to USD 2 billion annually, with shrimp and pangasius (also known as catfish) being the leading products. In 2024, average export prices to the US were around USD 9–10/kg for processed shrimp and USD 2.20–2.80/kg for pangasius, according to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP). However,  the new 15–20% tariff, combined with existing anti-dumping duties on pangasius, will squeeze profit margins and may force some exporters to absorb costs or lose market share to competitors from India, Ecuador, or Indonesia. While Vietnam’s seafood sector has demonstrated resilience and adaptability, the increased trade barriers are likely to accelerate efforts to diversify export destinations and invest in value-added processing, thereby maintaining growth in a more challenging global environment.

The US market is highly price-sensitive, and even a modest tariff can shift buying patterns toward other suppliers, such as India, Ecuador, or Indonesia. The risk is not just lost sales, but also a loss of market share that could be hard to recover.

The Bigger Picture: Adaptation and Opportunity

While these tariffs are an apparent setback, there are new opportunities as well. Vietnamese exporters have consistently demonstrated agility, continually improving quality, investing in branding, and adapting to new markets as needed. The current situation is likely to accelerate these trends. Vietnamese fruit and seafood brands are expected to target the EU, Japan, and South Korea, where free trade agreements offer better terms.

At the same time, the government and industry will need to double down on supply chain transparency and compliance, mainly to avoid the risk of being caught up in transshipment disputes or origin fraud investigations.

Conclusion

For Vietnam’s fruit and seafood sectors, the new US tariffs pose a significant challenge, yet also catalyze change. The winners will be those who can adapt quickly by cutting costs, innovating, and finding new markets. As always, resilience and agility will be the keys to weathering this storm. For Vietnam’s fruit and seafood sectors, the new US tariffs are far more than a line item on an invoice; they represent a fundamental inflection point that challenges established growth models and will catalyze significant, lasting change. The immediate outlook suggests these tariffs are unlikely to be a fleeting issue. Entangled in the complexities of US domestic policy and broader geopolitical strategies, they may represent a new, persistent feature of the trade landscape. Therefore, industry players must pivot from a strategy of waiting it out to one of proactive adaptation.

The path forward demands a multi-faceted response. Firstly, the imperative to diversify markets is no longer a long-term goal but an urgent necessity. This means aggressively deepening penetration into markets with favorable trade agreements, such as the European Union (leveraging the EVFTA), and cultivating new relationships in Japan, South Korea, and the Middle East. Secondly, the crisis will accelerate the move up the value chain. For fruit exporters, this translates to greater investment in processing technologies for products like Individually Quick Frozen (IQF) fruits, branded juices, and dried snacks that command higher margins. For the seafood industry, it means shifting focus from raw commodity exports to value-added products like marinated shrimp, breaded pangasius, and ready-to-cook meal solutions that are less sensitive to price fluctuations.

Internally, companies will be forced to pursue efficiency relentlessly, optimizing supply chains from farm to port to absorb costs without compromising the quality that has become Vietnam's hallmark. Collaboration will also be paramount; industry bodies like VASEP will play a crucial role in navigating regulatory hurdles, sharing market intelligence, and advocating on the international stage.

In essence, the era of relying on high-volume, low-margin growth in a single dominant market is being forcibly concluded. The US tariffs, while challenging, are acting as a powerful catalyst for maturation. The future success of Vietnam's agri-exporters will be defined not by how much they can ship, but by their strategic foresight, their investment in innovation and value, and their agility in an increasingly complex global marketplace.