South African Pecan Prices Find Support from Strong Chinese Demand

South African pecan prices dipped by 5% in August, settling at USD 9.67/kg for pecan kernels in major wholesale markets, with resistance noted at USD 10.00/kg. The export season commenced well, with July exports reaching 4,851 mt. South African production for 2023 is estimated 15% down from the record 31,846 mt in 2022, potentially leading to quick inventory depletion given the smaller crop and ongoing strong export demand. Strong demand, primarily from China, means prices could test the USD 10.00/kg levels again soon.
Chicken wholesale prices in Pernambuco, Brazil, averaged BRL 8.90 per kilogram (kg) in August, the lowest monthly average in 17 months. This figure also represented the sharpest year-on-year (YoY) decline in percentage terms since at least 2019, at 16.3%. Overall, the high meat supply, such as beef, swine, and chicken, continues to pressure chicken prices. Ongoing increases in Brazilian chicken meat exports -- up 10% YoY in volume from Jan-23 to Jul-23 -- haven't resulted in considerable support to domestic prices.  Prices are averaging BRL 9.09/kg so far into September, an increase of 2% compared to the previous month but still down by a wide 14% compared to the same month in 2022. As producers' margins tighten, there has been some reduction in supply. Nonetheless, as stated in Tridge's latest Meat and Seafood outlook, prices remain considerably above their levels in 2019 and 2020, signaling further downside room.