Walnut Prices in Hungary Decrease to Their Lowest in Six Months on Harvest Pressure, Increased Competition

Walnut prices in Eastern Europe are under harvest pressure as the Northern Hemisphere crop is starting to come in. Wholesale prices in Hungary experienced a 1.5% MoM decrease to USD 8.17/kg by early September, the lowest since March. Expectations of a sizable walnut harvest in Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, and Hungary, as well as increased competition from the US, China, and Chile, are weighing heavily on prices. Coupled with subdued consumer demand, walnut prices could remain under significant downward pressure throughout September and October.
Walnut prices in Eastern Europe came under pressure with the upcoming Northern Hemisphere harvest looming. Wholesale walnut kernel prices in Hungary decreased gradually since July, to drop to USD 8.17 per kilogram (kg) by early September. Prices are at their lowest since March. Hungary is a significant producer in Europe and also a gateway for Ukrainian walnuts into the rest of Europe. The walnut harvest in Eastern Europe will start in September. Like last year, Ukraine is expecting a large crop of 106,000 metric tons (in-shell), as per United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates. According to the Moldova Nut Producers Association, Moldova's production is expected to increase to around 34,000 mt (in-shell), up 25% from 2022. Romania anticipates a crop of 32,000 mt (in-shell), up 7% YoY, while Hungary's production is forecasted to reach 14,000 mt (in-shell), up 4% YoY. European producers face increased competition from other markets. The United States (US) expects a crop of 716,675 mt, a record shared with production in 2020. Similar to last year, China's crop is estimated at 1.4 million metric tons (mmt). China has been targeting the European market for exports, especially lower-quality walnuts used in the confectionery industry. Chile has become the world's third-largest exporter, and their walnuts are available when the Northern Hemisphere is out of season. With increased competition from outside Europe and lackluster consumer demand, the upcoming harvest will put prices under significant downward pressure. Prices are expected to continue their decline as nuts become available on the market throughout the end of September and October.