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Argentina's 2025 orange production is expected to decline slightly due to high domestic costs, stagnant sales prices, and weather challenges, including droughts and frosts. In 2024, increased production led to market supply pressure, driving prices down despite solid export volumes. With a weakened domestic market, exporters are shifting focus to international sales, maintaining stable shipments to key markets like Canada, Brazil, and Russia, while facing limitations from European tariff barriers. Logistics challenges persist due to Argentina’s positioning on global shipping routes, causing delays, but the recent market opening in Guatemala offers a promising new opportunity.
Brazil's 2024/25 orange crop is forecast at 223.14 million boxes, up 3.4% from the previous estimate but still 27.4% below the 2023/24 season. Weak global demand has pressured prices, with Brazilian orange juice concentrate offered at USD 6,150 to 6,450 per metric tons (mt) FOB, reflecting a 3% month-on-month (MoM) decline. European retailers have shifted from 100% orange juice to nectars or juice drinks due to high costs, easing concerns about supply shortages. Meanwhile, the upcoming harvest is reportedly in good condition, with early estimates ranging from 270 million to 300 million boxes.
China’s navel orange market has experienced delayed harvests and rising prices due to lower-than-expected temperatures after the Chinese New Year, particularly impacting Fengjie navel oranges, which are currently priced at around USD 0.82 per kilogram (RMB 6/kg). However, with new production areas set to begin harvesting by mid-March, prices are expected to decline. Strong international demand, especially from Southeast and South Asia, drives export growth, prompting Chinese exporters to shift from price competition to quality differentiation through premium packaging and improved standards. In 2024, navel orange exports are projected to grow by 30%, supported by streamlined customs procedures and increased participation from major domestic fruit importers.
In 2025, Nepal's Gulmi district saw its orange production value rise to approximately USD 1.85 million, up from USD 1.74 million the previous year, while exports increased to USD 0.97 million from USD 0.89 million. This growth is driven by new trees reaching maturity, timely fertilizer application, improved irrigation, and technical support. Over 95% of the district’s orange trees are biju varieties, valued for their longevity. Despite root and stem rot challenges, structured farming initiatives under the Prime Minister’s Agriculture Modernisation Project and the Citrus Fruit Zone Programme strengthen commercial production, ensuring sustainable growth across key areas.
Florida’s orange industry is experiencing a sharp decline, with production expected to drop 33% in 2024 due to stronger hurricanes and the spread of citrus greening disease. Hurricane Milton alone damaged 70% of the state's citrus acreage, intensifying supply challenges and driving orange juice prices nearly double since 2020. As a result, consumers are increasingly shifting to alternatives like teas and sparkling waters. While the industry is working to diversify its product offerings, financial strain, and evolving market dynamics continue to pose significant challenges.
Spain's orange prices rose by 5.88% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 0.36/kg in W8, with a 24.14% MoM increase due to reduced supply as the season progresses and steady export demand from key European markets. Additionally, the slight rebound in prices observed since Jan-25 suggests improving market conditions, supported by better-quality fruit and increased shipments. However, year-on-year (YoY) prices dropped by 10% due to the overall weaker pricing environment this season, with supply outpacing demand earlier in the season and prices remaining below the five-year average.
Orange prices in South Africa rose by 3.05% WoW to USD 1.35/kg in W8 due to sustained strong export demand, particularly from the European Union (EU) and Middle Eastern markets, alongside a temporary tightening of fresh market supply as processing volumes remain high. However, there is a drop of 2.88% MoM in orange prices due to the gradual increase in production, which is beginning to ease supply constraints. Additionally, stable domestic availability and cautious consumer purchasing have contributed to the slight downward pressure on monthly prices.
Egypt's orange prices dropped by 18.52% WoW to USD 0.22/kg in W8 due to an increase in domestic market supply as exporters fulfilled earlier commitments, easing local shortages. Additionally, the recent price surge prompted some buyers to delay purchases, leading to a temporary dip in demand. Despite the weekly decline, prices remain elevated compared to previous months, supported by strong export interest from the EU, where Egyptian oranges continue to dominate the market despite lower overall shipments.
In the United States (US), orange prices held steady at USD 0.97/kg in W8, with a 6.59% MoM increase due to tightening domestic supply following the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s downward revision of Florida’s production forecast. The impact of citrus greening disease, past hurricane damage, and declining fruit quality has continued to limit yields, keeping supply constrained. However, orange prices dropped by 29.20% YoY due to softer consumer demand, increased imports of more affordable Brazilian orange juice, and shifting consumption patterns toward alternative beverages such as teas and sparkling waters. Additionally, structural changes in the industry, including major suppliers exiting the market, have contributed to long-term price volatility.
Orange prices in Italy fell by 7.65% WoW to USD 1.57/kg in W8, with a 3.09% MoM decrease due to the seasonal slowdown in demand as the Washington Navel season concludes and Tarocco blood orange availability stabilizes. Additionally, the gradual decline in prices observed over recent months suggests easing supply constraints, while weaker retail sales and price resistance from consumers have contributed to the downward trend. However, Italy remains the highest-priced market for oranges, supported by strong domestic demand and elevated production costs, which continue to keep prices above historical averages despite the recent decline.
Florida orange growers and processors should expand into value-added products like blended citrus juices, flavored sparkling waters, and citrus-based health supplements to counter declining fresh orange production. Retailers can promote premium orange juice blends to maintain consumer interest, while suppliers can explore partnerships with beverage brands to integrate orange-derived ingredients into new product lines.
Capitalize on Premium Navel Orange Exports
Chinese exporters should focus on quality differentiation by enhancing packaging, branding, and post-harvest handling to attract high-value Southeast and South Asian markets. Importers can strengthen partnerships with trusted suppliers to secure premium-grade oranges, while retailers should highlight superior freshness and origin certification to justify higher prices and boost consumer demand.
Brazilian orange juice exporters should secure long-term contracts with key buyers to stabilize revenue amid declining prices. Traders can explore value-added options like premium juice blends or private-label partnerships to maintain competitiveness. Retailers should adjust pricing strategies to promote mixed juice products, aligning with shifting consumer preferences in Europe.
Sources: Tridge, CNN, Freshplaza, Eastruit, European Commission, FDACS, Mintec/Expana, Mxbc, The Rising Nepal
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