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The global grape industry is undergoing a significant transformation as rising competition and evolving consumer expectations reshape market dynamics across Asia, particularly impacting leading exporters such as Chile, Peru, and the United States (US). Although grape exports from these countries have increased, especially during the November to April window, grower returns are declining due to market saturation and intensifying rivalry. Chilean grapes face tough competition from Australia and South Africa, which benefit from faster transit times and fresher arrivals. While still in demand, Peruvian grapes are increasingly challenged by later-arriving Australian fruit that reaches markets in superior condition. Meanwhile, US producers face rising production and freight costs, pushing some to adopt expensive but faster airfreight options. Adding to the pressure, China has become a formidable year-round competitor, offering high-quality grapes at significantly lower prices. In Asia’s loosely branded retail landscape, where bulk sales dominate, success hinges on delivering freshness, appealing taste, and premium green seedless varieties like Autumn Crisp and Sweet Globe. To stay competitive, growers in Chile, Peru, and the US must enhance logistics, respond to shifting consumer demands, and diversify their market reach.
Azerbaijan has begun cultivating the Calardis Blanc grape variety in the Shamakhi region, planting 100 saplings of this German-developed hybrid, a cross between Calardis Musqué and Seyve Villard. Known for its strong resistance to sunburn, fungal diseases, and drought, Calardis Blanc is being tested for its adaptability to Azerbaijan’s changing climate, particularly in the context of declining rainfall and the need for resilient, rainfed farming solutions. The variety's natural resistance to pests and diseases could reduce fungicide use by up to 80%, aligning with the country’s broader goals for sustainable viticulture. If successful, Calardis Blanc may be recommended for wider cultivation nationwide. Its use for table consumption and sparkling wine production makes it more marketable in the region.
Chile has launched its first-ever exports of organic table grapes to the US. This marks an important step enabled by the US’ approval of the Systems Approach protocol in 2023, following more than two decades of negotiations. This protocol allows growers in key Chilean regions to bypass fumigation, a requirement that had long blocked organic grapes from accessing the US market. The inaugural shipment signals new commercial opportunities for Chilean producers, especially given the current favorable market conditions driven by high demand, limited supply, and strategic timing between the end of Peru’s season and the start of Mexico’s. Most of Chile’s grape production remains conventional due to the high costs and prolonged transition to organic farming. However, successful entry into the US market is expected to encourage more growers to switch, potentially boosting organic export volumes in the coming seasons.
Mexico is positioning itself as a major player in the grape market this season, with Jalisco starting production on schedule under ideal growing conditions. High-quality grapes, particularly green, red, and candy varieties, are arriving in increasing volumes from Jalisco and Sonora. These grapes offer a freshness advantage over late-season imports from Peru and Chile, which have struggled with oversupply, storage issues, and declining quality. Despite the overall supply-demand imbalance in the market, demand for fresh Mexican grapes remains strong, especially for the more sought-after green and candy types. Prices are expected to remain stable and favorable, with additional promotional opportunities anticipated as Sonora’s harvest peaks in June and July. While rising production costs remain a concern, Mexico is maintaining high-quality standards and looks ahead to a promising and competitive grape season.
Peru achieved a record-breaking grape export volume of 700 thousand tons valued at nearly USD 2 billion during the 2023/24 season. This was a significant increase from the previous year’s 563 thousand tons, despite facing challenges such as rainfall in the south, water shortages in the north, container scarcity, and port congestion. The US remained the leading destination, receiving almost 400 thousand tons, followed by Europe with 166 thousand tons. Prices held steady in primary markets, with only a marginal decline of less than 5%, reflecting continued strong global demand. In the future, the opening of the Port of Chancay is anticipated to streamline shipments to Asia, further strengthening Peru’s position in international markets. Peru’s consistent grape quality continues to serve as a competitive edge, particularly in Europe, where it competes with South African and Namibian exports.
South Africa's table grape industry is facing significant uncertainty after the US initially imposed a 31% import tariff. Although the decision was later reversed with a 90-day grace period, exporters remain unclear whether the applicable rate is 10% or 31%. The South African Table Grape Industry (SATI) has expressed serious concerns over the ambiguity, warning of potential export disruptions and job losses across the farming industry. Over the past five seasons, South Africa has achieved a 28% increase in grape exports to the US, establishing itself as a crucial off-season supplier of high-quality grapes. However, a reinstatement of the higher tariff would severely impact the industry's competitiveness, especially against competitors such as Peru and Chile, which continue to benefit from a lower 10% rate. This uncertainty threatens to weaken South Africa's hard-earned market share in one of its key export destinations, prompting SATI to actively engage with government officials and trade bodies to secure more favorable, long-term access.
Chile's grape prices dropped significantly by 37.08% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 0.56 per kilogram (kg) in W15, reflecting a 35.63% month-on-month (MoM) decrease and a 41.67% year-on-year (YoY) drop. The price decline is due to oversupply in international markets as Chilean grape shipments peaked in late Feb-25 and Mar-25, coinciding with arrivals from other Southern Hemisphere producers like South Africa and Australia. Additionally, declining demand for conventional varieties and logistical slowdowns in key export corridors have further eroded price support. As the season nears its end, the remaining volumes consist largely of less desirable grades, further pushing prices downward.
In W15, grape prices in Peru increased by 3.39% WoW to USD 0.61/kg, with a 5.17% MoM increase due to strong late-season export activity supported by sustained demand from core markets like the US and Europe. The steady quality of Peruvian grapes and a continued preference for premium green seedless varieties, such as Sweet Globe, have helped maintain price levels despite logistical hurdles. However, YoY prices dropped by 34.41% due to an overall market correction following last season’s weather-driven supply constraints that had temporarily increased prices. This year’s record-high export volumes, combined with broader market saturation and increased global competition, particularly from Australia and South Africa, have pressured prices downward compared to the previous year.
Grape prices in South Africa fell by 5.42% WoW to USD 1.92/kg in W15 due to lingering uncertainty surrounding the US import tariff decision, which has created hesitation among exporters and disrupted short-term trade flows. The lack of clarity on whether a 10% or 31% tariff applies is causing logistical delays and market caution, particularly for shipments destined for the US, one of South Africa’s key export markets. However, there is an 8.47% MoM increase and an 18.52% YoY increase due to strong demand for high-quality South African grapes in other global markets, such as Europe and Asia, where the country continues to benefit from its favorable seasonal window. The overall improvement in grape quality this season and a rebound in export volumes have also contributed to sustained price strength on a monthly and annual basis.
In India, grape prices dropped by 10.67% WoW to USD 0.67/kg in W15, with a 33.66% MoM decrease due to a surge in local supply from peak harvest activity in major grape-producing states like Maharashtra and Karnataka. Favorable weather in certain pockets accelerated harvesting, increasing arrivals in local markets and putting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, subdued export activity, partly due to logistical bottlenecks and quality concerns from unseasonal rainfall in Nashik, has led to an oversupply in the domestic market. However, YoY prices increased slightly by 1.52% due to continued solid demand in domestic retail markets, which had kept prices higher compared to last year.
Mexican grape exporters should capitalize on their early-season advantage by launching targeted promotions for high-demand varieties like green and candy grapes. By highlighting superior freshness and quality compared to late-season imports from Peru and Chile, exporters can strengthen their position in key markets. Recommended actions include offering promotional pricing to retailers, showcasing premium grape quality through in-store tastings, and running social media campaigns focused on freshness and variety. This approach will help drive consumer interest, boost early sales, and maintain stable pricing throughout the peak season.
Peruvian grape exporters should reinforce their competitive edge by strategically aligning variety selection with market demand. Prioritize high-performing seedless varieties like Sweet Globe and Autumn Crisp for the US and Europe, where consistent quality and shelf life are crucial. For Asian markets, prepare for expansion by increasing red and specialty grape plantings, timed to align with the opening of the Port of Chancay. Exporters should also review pack styles and branding to match buyer preferences in each region, helping secure contracts and maintain pricing power even amid logistical challenges.
South African grape exporters should proactively engage US importers with clear, contingency-based pricing models that account for both possible tariff scenarios. By offering dual quotes—one assuming a 10% tariff and another at 31%, exporters can reduce uncertainty for buyers and avoid last-minute renegotiations. This approach maintains trust and helps preserve shelf space and long-term relationships. Exporters should also prioritize communication of their reliability and quality advantage through consistent updates, sample shipments, and promotions highlighting South Africa’s off-season freshness compared to competitors.
Sources: Tridge, International Produce Group (IPG), Freshplaza, Fruitnet, Report
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