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Trade4go
Apr 18th, 2025
Original content
According to Eurostat, the European Union (EU) cattle population has declined by 5% between 2021 and 2024, totaling a loss of approximately 1.76 million cows. Over the past year alone, the herd shrank by 1.7 million heads, representing a 2.3% decrease compared to Jan-24. This downward trend is attributed to restrictive agricultural policies, the growing impact of climate-related challenges, and changing consumer preferences. Consequently, beef production in the EU has declined, exacerbating supply shortages and driving prices up. The shrinking cattle herd in the EU could likely present a potential opening for Latin American exporters, such as Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay, to fill the supply gap, provided they meet the EU's growing environmental standards.
Argentina’s beef exports plummeted by nearly 30% year-on-year (YoY) in the first two months of 2025, despite relatively stable exportable cattle supply and growing global demand. Unlike past declines caused by supply issues, the current drop is attributed to domestic economic constraints, including currency inflation and diminished competitiveness. Inflation-driven currency issues and export restrictions have weakened Argentina's competitiveness, allowing competitor exporters like Brazil, Australia, Uruguay, and Paraguay to expand their market share. Although demand from countries like China, the United States (US), and Europe remains strong, Argentina’s exporters are hindered by high export tariffs, especially to the US, where combined duties can reach up to 50%. Trade uncertainties, especially under the US’ renewed protectionist agenda, have further slowed sales. Meanwhile, Argentina’s meat sector is also navigating new health, regulatory, and geopolitical barriers, including European Union Deforestation Regulations (EUDR) and internal trade distortions. Despite these setbacks, Argentine industry leaders remain optimistic, highlighting ongoing efforts to strengthen ties with Asian markets and adapt to new international standards.
Mexico has suspended beef imports from five major Argentine meatpacking plants, citing unspecified "deficiencies" found during audits. The move by Mexico’s National Service of Health, Safety, and Agrifood Quality (SENASICA) has raised concerns in Argentina’s export sector, with industry leaders questioning the lack of technical detail and suggesting possible political motives. Since re-entering the Mexican market in 2022 after a decade-long negotiation, Argentina has seen growing demand, with hopes of expanding further using Mexico as a strategic gateway into North America. The suspension threatens this progress, prompting urgent diplomatic and technical efforts to resolve the issue and prevent similar actions from other markets.
According to data from the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries (Abiec), Brazil exported 248 thousand metric tons (mt) of beef in Mar-25, a 13.1% month-on-month (MoM) increase and a notable 30.2% YoY rise. These exports generated USD 1.17 billion in revenue, up 12.8% MoM and a significant 39.6% YoY. Fresh meat continued to dominate the export portfolio, accounting for 86.8% of the volume and 89.7% of the export value. China remained the leading destination for Brazilian beef, receiving 97.3 thousand mt, accounting for 39.2% of the total volume and 39.4% of the export value. Exports to the US surged significantly, with volumes rising by 56.3% MoM to 42.1 thousand mt, while export value increased by 53% MoM to USD 225.5 million. This strong performance may face headwinds moving forward, as the US recently implemented a 10% tariff on Brazilian beef. The negative impact could be compounded by the fact that the 65 thousand mt duty-free quota was already exhausted in Jan-25.
The United Kingdom (UK) has banned the import of meat, dairy products, and related items from the EU to prevent foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), which has been reported in Hungary, Germany, and Slovakia. The ban affects various products, including meat from cattle, sheep, and pork, with violators facing fines or confiscation of goods. However, the ban does not apply to Northern Ireland, Jersey, Guernsey, or the Isle of Man, and exceptions are made for products like baby milk and chocolate. This move aims to protect UK food security after outbreaks in Europe raised concerns over further spread.
The export price of Uruguayan beef has seen growth in early 2025, with the average price reaching USD 4,790/mt in Mar-25, marking a 21% YoY increase and the highest average since Sep-22. Uruguay exported 43.40 thousand mt of beef in Mar-25, an 8.5% YoY rise, with the US being the primary destination, showing a 51% YoY growth. While exports to China declined by 23% YoY, the EU saw a 44% YoY increase. The first live cattle shipment to Israel is expected by late Apr-25 or early May-25, continuing a robust trade flow. Additionally, the live cattle export market is growing, particularly to Turkey, which saw a significant increase in imports. Meanwhile, the domestic cattle market remains stable, with demand for fattened steers and cows staying strong.
In W15, Brazil's wholesale boneless rear beef price fell by 4.77% week-on-week to USD 4.59 per kilogram (kg), marking a 6.33% MoM drop and a 4.18% YoY decline. This drop is largely attributed to sluggish demand caused by high beef prices. Nevertheless, Safras and Mercado report that the wholesale market continues to show price firmness, with potential for increases in the coming days, supported by salary inflows and expectations of stronger consumption during the Easter and Tiradentes holidays. Meanwhile, Brazil's beef exports remain strong, with the possibility of reaching a historic record this season. In the physical cattle market, prices continued to rise, driven by solid demand in early Apr-25 and reduced slaughter schedules. Safras and Mercado also anticipate Brazil may expand its beef exports to China amid ongoing US tariff tensions, further supporting arroba prices.
Australia’s National Young Cattle Indicator averaged USD 2.25/kg in W15, down 4.66% WoW but still 2.74% higher MoM and 6.13% above last year. According to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), the market shifted negatively following the announcement of US tariffs, though the Restocker Steer Indicator held steady. With the Easter holiday approaching, cattle supply rose by 6.33 thousand heads to 69.56 thousand heads. Demand remained strong for lighter cattle under 500kg, especially for feedlots, keeping the Feeder Steer Indicator stable. Prices rose in New South Wales and Victoria, while Queensland saw declines.
In W15, US lean beef (92% to 94%) averaged USD 8.79/kg, down slightly by 0.68% WoW but up 11.41% YoY. The elevated price is driven by tightening domestic supply amid the ongoing contraction of the cow herd. As of January 1, the US cattle inventory fell to 86.7 million heads, the lowest since 1951, while Feb-25 feedlot numbers dropped 1% YoY to 11.72 million heads, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Cattle on feed over 150 days also declined nearly 3% YoY. Consequently, Q1-2025 beef production was reduced by 65 million pounds (lbs), with total 2025 output forecast at 26.69 billion lbs, down 1% YoY and 6% below 2022. Supply pressures are further compounded by a new 10% baseline tariff on all imports, potentially disrupting trade flows and deepening market shortages.
Argentina’s average steer beef price fell to USD 2.45/kg in W15, down 7.89% WoW and 2.39% MoM, likely due to weak demand and recent US tariff hikes. However, prices are expected to rebound in the coming weeks with Easter-driven consumption. Despite the weekly drop, prices remained 23.74% higher YoY. Meanwhile, supply concerns are growing. According to the Argentine Meat Exporters Consortium (ABC), cattle slaughter in Mar-25 totaled 1.02 million heads, down 0.7% MoM and 3.5% YoY. In Q1-2025, 3.20 million heads were slaughtered, a 2.4% decline from 3.28 million in Q1-2024. Female slaughter made up 46.4% of the total, slightly below the 46.9% share in Q1-2024. Beef production reached 234 thousand mt in Mar-25, down 0.8% MoM and 2.7% YoY. Total Q1-2025 production stood at 734.8 thousand mt, a 1.8% drop from 748.1 thousand mt in the previous year.
With the EU’s cattle herd shrinking due to strict environmental policies and climate pressures, Latin American exporters, particularly Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina, should actively position themselves to fill the supply gap. These countries should invest in aligning their production and traceability systems with EU sustainability and animal welfare standards, especially in light of the EUDR. Certifications, eco-labeling, and sustainable land use practices will become critical in securing long-term access. Additionally, engaging in strategic marketing to emphasize grass-fed, low-carbon beef can appeal to EU consumers and policymakers, helping exporters gain preferential access or premium positioning within the bloc.
To counteract the drop in beef exports caused by inflation, high tariffs, and regulatory burdens, Argentina should pursue urgent policy interventions focused on reducing export taxes and stabilizing macroeconomic indicators such as currency volatility. Engaging with trade partners to negotiate tariff relief, especially with the US, and resolving health and technical trade barriers with Mexico must be prioritized. Moreover, Argentina should accelerate efforts to deepen trade relations with high-demand Asian markets such as China, Vietnam, and Indonesia, which offer growing opportunities and fewer geopolitical hurdles. Focusing on value-added products and building supply chain resilience will further help regain lost market share.
Uruguay’s surge in beef export prices and volume, particularly to the US and the EU, should be leveraged to build brand equity around premium, grass-fed beef. To sustain this momentum, Uruguay must continue diversifying into emerging markets such as Israel, Turkey, and Southeast Asia, where live cattle and beef demand is increasing. Promoting traceability, hormone-free standards, and animal welfare can support premium pricing. Uruguay should also explore strategic partnerships for joint ventures or branded retail lines abroad to capture more value across the beef value chain.
Sources: Tridge, Agromeat, Bichos de campo, Chacra Magazine, Canal Rural, Rosng
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