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Avocado production in Brazil is expanding steadily in response to rising global demand, with exports surpassing 24 thousand tons in 2024 and generating over USD 36 million. This growth has been bolstered by newly secured market access to Japan, Chile, Costa Rica, and India, complementing existing trade relationships with Argentina and Bolivia. Backed by the Brazilian Association of Fruit and Derivative Producers and Exporters (Abrafrutas), the expansion aligns with a broader strategy to diversify export destinations and fortify the country’s avocado industry. As Brazil positions itself as a competitive avocado exporter, industry stakeholders are prioritizing efficient logistics, high-quality standards, and robust traceability systems to meet the expectations of these new markets and ensure sustained international growth.
The United States (US) has revised its import requirements for fresh Hass avocados from Guatemala following the confirmed presence of the quarantine pest Copturus aguacatae, also known as the stem weevil. Effective immediately, Guatemala must adhere to a new operational work plan (OWP) jointly established with the United States Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), detailing the necessary pest control, monitoring, and survey protocols. Under this Federal Order, the Guatemalan National Plant Protection Organization (NPPO) is required to maintain pest-free production areas supported by targeted control programs. Any detection of the stem weevil or other pests of concern during export inspections or phytosanitary certification will result in regulatory action. These enhanced measures are designed to safeguard US agriculture by ensuring that imported avocados meet stringent phytosanitary standards and prevent the introduction of harmful pests.
Mexico is projected to produce 3.03 million tons of avocados in 2025, a 3% year-on-year (YoY) increase from the estimated 2.94 million tons in 2024, supported by favorable weather conditions, improved farming practices, and strong export demand. The planted area is expected to remain stable at approximately 256.5 thousand hectares (ha). This stability is constrained by stricter land-use regulations and the implementation of a new deforestation-free certification in Michoacán, which continues to lead production with 68% of the national output. While Michoacán experienced a slight decline in 2024, Jalisco saw a 5% YoY production increase, driven by consistent water availability and growing export demand.
Avocado exports from Mexico are forecast to reach 1.48 million tons in 2025, representing a 5% YoY increase, with over 80% of the exports destined for the US. In contrast, exports in 2024 dropped to 1.41 million tons, a 9% YoY decrease, primarily due to fluctuating crop yields and high logistics costs. Despite this decline, Mexico continued to dominate the US market, accounting for approximately 88% of US avocado imports. Peak volumes are typically shipped between December and February, coinciding with the Super Bowl season. Export markets continue to prefer Hass avocados, with the US being a key destination. New United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) oversight procedures introduced in Jul-24 are expected to streamline certification processes for orchards exporting to the US, further supporting Mexico’s export growth.
In Spain, avocado prices surged sharply at the end of the Hass season, rising from USD 11.36 to over USD 17.04 per box, driven by limited fruit availability following March rains and overlapping production with Portugal and Morocco in Feb-25. Currently, Spain is marketing Lamb Hass avocados from Malaga and Granada while preparing for incoming shipments of Peruvian Hass avocados, with Peru anticipating a 35 to 37% increase in harvest volume this year. Valued for its stable yields, drought tolerance, and consistent ripening, the Lamb Hass variety is gradually gaining acceptance in the Spanish market despite some consumer unfamiliarity with its ripening indicators. To ensure year-round availability and meet ongoing demand, Spanish producers are extending their domestic season while diversifying supply sources through imports from Peru, Morocco, and Portugal. This approach underscores Spain’s evolving position in the global avocado industry, not just as a grower but as a key year-round importer and service provider.
Spain’s tropical fruit industry anticipates a potential recovery in avocado production this season in Malaga after years of drought and water shortages. Recent rains have eased prolonged water stress on trees, improving growing conditions and raising expectations for a potential record harvest, though official figures are still pending. Avocado prices have remained relatively stable, ranging from USD 0.22 to 0.27 per kilogram (EUR 0.19 to 0.24/kg), slightly below last year’s average. Meanwhile, export performance has shown mixed results. While shipments from Andalusia declined by 14% YoY in volume and 10% YoY in value, exports within the European Union (EU) recorded a 9% YoY increase in unit value, partially offsetting the sharp drop in sales to non-EU markets. Despite these challenges, the industry remains hopeful for a more favorable season.
Avocado production in South Africa is rapidly expanding, especially in the Western Cape regions of George, the Helderberg Basin, and Riebeeck Kasteel. The cultivated area in these regions has grown significantly, from 135 ha in 2017 to over 1.25 thousand ha. This region’s harvest window, running from September to January after the main Lowveld crop ends, provides a strategic opportunity to extend South Africa’s export season to Europe. In the 2024/early 2025 season, production in the Western Cape surpassed 3 thousand tons. It is expected to rise to between 5 thousand and 6.5 thousand tons in 2025 as newly planted orchards mature. Although local markets experienced supply shortages and high prices between Dec-24 and Feb-25, increased production is anticipated to stabilize prices in the upcoming season. Meanwhile, South Africa is actively pursuing access to new export destinations such as China and India. Research institutions and private industry players are investing in innovative solutions, including Artificial Intelligence (AI)-enabled agridrones, to support the industry’s continued growth and competitiveness.
In Peru, the 2025 Hass avocado season began later than in 2024 but with higher volumes, resulting in downward pressure on prices and encouraging exporters to seek out new markets. Early in the season, field prices fell from USD 1.88 to 1.74/kg (PEN 7 to 6.50/kg), while the Free On Board (FOB) price for a 4-kg box dropped to USD 8 in W16, compared to over USD 9/4kg box during the same period last year. This price decline reflects market saturation, softer early demand in Europe, and residual supplies from Morocco and Spain. In response, Peruvian exporters, including a growing number of emerging companies, are diversifying their reach by targeting markets such as Chile, where shipments run from April to September. They are also expanding into destinations like Dubai and South Korea. In addition to these efforts, innovation projects such as converting avocado seeds into bioplastics are gaining momentum. This initiative, which involves processing avocado seeds into eco-friendly bioplastics, is part of Peru's broader strategy to add value to its avocado production and reinforce its role in the global avocado trade.
In W15, avocado prices in Mexico increased by 4.47% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 3.04/kg, reflecting a 40.74% YoY surge due to strong export demand ahead of Cinco de Mayo celebrations in the US and limited supply from key production areas like Michoacán, which is still recovering from earlier seasonal fluctuations. Enhanced promotional campaigns in the US, such as "Guac Makes the Fiesta," have also fueled demand for Hass avocados, boosting market activity and price levels. However, month-on-month (MoM) prices dropped by 4.70% due to a gradual recovery in domestic harvest volumes, particularly from Jalisco, and improved weather conditions that stabilized local market availability after the earlier tightness in supply.
Avocado prices in Peru remained stable at USD 0.88/kg in W15, with a 10.20% MoM drop and a 1.12% YoY decline due to increased early-season supply, particularly from Feb-25 to Mar-25, exerting downward pressure on prices as harvest volumes ramped up despite the delayed start of the 2025 season. Softer demand in key European markets and the ongoing availability of avocados from Spain and Morocco contributed to market saturation. While prices held steady WoW, the broader downward trend reflects exporters' efforts to manage oversupply by expanding into alternative markets like Chile, Dubai, and South Korea in a bid to stabilize returns amid rising competition and slower-than-expected demand recovery.
Chilean avocado prices dropped by 5.28% WoW to USD 3.23/kg in W15, with a 7.18% MoM and an 18.23% YoY decrease. The price decline is due to increased competition from Peru and Mexico, both of which are in full harvest and flooding international markets with larger volumes at lower prices. Chilean exporters are also facing subdued demand in key destinations like Europe, where consumer spending remains cautious amid economic uncertainty. Additionally, as Chile transitions through mid-harvest stages, domestic market supplies have grown, adding further downward pressure on prices. Maintaining high prices is becoming more difficult due to limited product differentiation and shorter export windows.
Peruvian avocado exporters should intensify efforts to penetrate emerging markets like Chile, Dubai, and South Korea by leveraging targeted marketing campaigns and offering flexible pricing options. Focus on cultivating relationships with local distributors and retailers in these regions to build trust and gain a foothold. Simultaneously, exporters should explore further value-added opportunities, such as promoting bioplastics made from avocado seeds, to differentiate their products and cater to sustainability trends. Engaging in joint ventures or partnerships in these new markets can help secure long-term contracts and stabilize demand throughout the season.
Mexican avocado exporters should focus on expanding their export reach to diversify markets beyond the US, especially in Europe and Asia, where the demand for high-quality Hass avocados is growing. To mitigate the impact of logistics costs and fluctuating crop yields, they should invest in efficient supply chain management and explore partnerships with regional distributors. Additionally, as the USDA introduces new certification processes, exporters should streamline their operations to ensure faster and smoother access to the US market, taking full advantage of peak export periods like the Super Bowl. Fostering relationships with retailers in new markets and positioning avocados as a premium, sustainable product will help secure long-term growth.
Sources: Tridge, Abrafrutas, Efeagro.com, Freshfruitportal, Freshplaza, George Herald, GoExport, Portalfruticola, USDA, Xarki
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