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Brazil is expected to expand its Hass avocado exports, with Chile becoming a key destination starting in 2025, marking a significant shift from its traditional focus on tropical avocados for domestic consumption. The new access to the Chilean market, one of the world’s largest consumers with 8.5 kilograms (kg) per capita annually, opens opportunities for Brazil’s growing Hass avocado industry. The production capacity is 320 thousand tons per year, with the Hass variety accounting for 10% of the production. With approximately 22 thousand to 30 thousand hectares (ha) under cultivation, Brazil’s February to July harvest window complements Chile’s October start, offering a seasonal advantage. Additionally, Brazilian exporters benefit from lower transportation costs due to land access. By emphasizing product quality and collaborating with Chilean authorities, Brazil aims to position its avocados as a premium alternative to Peruvian offerings, further strengthening its presence in Latin America.
In Colombia, the Hass avocado industry faces a significant challenge following the United States (US) government’s decision to impose a 10% tariff on Colombian products. This has raised concerns about its competitiveness in a key export market. Colombia has been steadily expanding its avocado industry, with production spread across 17 departments and projected exports nearing 182 thousand tons in 2025. In 2024, the US accounted for around 25% of Colombia’s avocado exports, with expectations to reach 50% this year. However, the new tariff threatens this growth, especially as Mexico, which supplies 80% of the US avocado market, remains exempt. Colombian producers highlight the superior quality and sustainability of their avocados while engaging in diplomatic efforts to maintain market access. Despite these challenges, regions like Risaralda have shown strong performance, with avocado export revenues surpassing USD 1 million in Feb-25, marking a 19% year-on-year (YoY) increase.
Kenya is working to diversify its avocado export markets beyond Europe by targeting North America as its avocado production continues to grow. At the Perishable Logistics Africa 2025 conference in Nairobi, private and public stakeholders emphasized the need for collaboration to tap into the high-potential US market, which consumed 1.3 million metric tons (mmt) of avocados in 2024, with over 80% sourced from Mexico. While China and India are emerging markets, their current demand is still lower than Europe's. To prepare for future market access to North America, Kenya is focusing on strengthening its production, processing, and logistics infrastructure to secure long-term growth opportunities for its avocado industry.
Mexico is expected to produce 2.75 mmt of avocados in 2025, a 3% YoY increase from the estimated 2.67 mmt in 2024, driven by favorable weather, improved farming practices, and strong export demand. Avocado exports are projected to rise by 5% YoY to 1.34 mmt, with the US continuing to be the primary market, accounting for 80% of exports, followed by Canada (7%) and Japan (3%). While domestic per capita consumption rose nearly 10% to 12 kg in 2024, avocados remain a luxury item in Mexico due to their high prices compared to other fruits. Production is concentrated in Michoacán, which contributes 68% of the national output, with Jalisco (12%) and the State of Mexico (5%) following. The planted area is expected to stay flat at 256.5 thousand ha, influenced by land use regulations and sustainability efforts, including a deforestation-free certification program in Michoacán.
Despite concerns over potential new tariffs on Mexican agricultural products, Mexican avocados remain unaffected due to their coverage under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which ensures a 0% tariff rate for entry into the US market. As the primary destination for 80% to 90% of exports, the US plays a crucial role in Mexico's avocado industry, which has made significant advancements in production, logistics, and regulatory compliance over the past three decades, ensuring consistent product quality and strong consumer demand. While the USMCA's formal review is scheduled for 2026, the avocado sector is diversifying into markets like Japan, Canada, and Europe. However, any changes to the current tariff arrangements could affect demand and competitiveness, making continued quality improvements and stakeholder engagement essential to maintaining access to the US market.
The California Avocado Commission (CAC) has launched its 2025 consumer advertising campaign, showcasing the unique appeal of California-grown avocados by emphasizing their local, sustainable, and ethically sourced attributes. Featuring vibrant visuals of avocado dishes and consumer enjoyment, the campaign will utilize a range of media platforms, including streaming TV, digital audio, outdoor ads near retail locations, and custom content partnerships, with an anticipated reach of nearly 165 million impressions. Targeted advertising through collaborations with retailers will further enhance its impact across core and emerging markets. With only 15% of the crop harvested by Mar-25, promotable volumes of over 10 million pounds (lbs) per week are expected from Apr-25 through Labor Day, contributing to a projected total harvest of 375 million pounds for the 2025 season.
Weekly Avocado Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)
Mexico's avocado prices dropped by 5.21% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 2.91/kg in W14, marking a 4.28% month-on-month (MoM) decline. The price decrease is due to rising seasonal supply as the main harvest phase progresses, increasing volumes in local and export markets. Favorable weather conditions have supported steady harvesting, adding further downward pressure on prices. However, YoY prices surged by 35.98% due to elevated production costs, strong international demand, and lingering effects of earlier supply disruptions, which have kept overall price levels higher than the previous year.
Peruvian avocado prices dropped by 4.35% WoW to USD 0.88/kg in W14, with a 16.98% MoM due to continued market oversupply driven by the forecasted 23% increase in 2025 production volumes. The arrival of the peak harvest season has led to larger export volumes, saturating key markets and intensifying price competition, particularly against strong exporters like Mexico and Colombia. Additionally, logistical bottlenecks in key ports have delayed shipments, adding to stockpiles and putting further pressure on prices.
Spain's avocado prices dropped by 3.19% WoW to USD 2.73/kg in W14 due to increased competition from imported avocados, particularly from Peru and Colombia, which are entering the European market in larger volumes. This influx has created a more saturated market environment, leading to downward pressure on prices. However, prices surged by 22.42% MoM and 7.06% YoY due to a significant reduction in domestic Spanish avocado production, estimated to be 30% lower compared to the previous year. This decrease in local supply has tightened the market, supporting higher prices over the month and year.
In Chile, avocado prices increased by 4.60% WoW to USD 3.41/kg in W14 due to slightly improved demand from European markets and a temporary dip in avocado availability due to the shift between different stages of the harvest season. However, prices dropped by 5.01% MoM and 16.22% YoY due to strong competition from Peru and Mexico, which are currently in peak harvest and offering avocados at more competitive prices. Additionally, subdued export volumes and ongoing inflationary pressures in key markets have constrained consumer spending, keeping overall price levels lower than the previous year.
Mexican avocado exporters should focus on strengthening their supply chain to meet the projected increase in export demand by improving logistics and ensuring consistent quality. In particular, they should invest in more efficient packing and transportation systems to minimize post-harvest losses and ensure faster delivery to key markets like the US and Canada. For example, partnering with cold storage providers and implementing real-time tracking technologies can help maintain fruit quality and reduce spoilage. Additionally, targeting emerging markets such as Japan with tailored marketing campaigns could diversify and secure more revenue streams.
Kenyan avocado exporters should prioritize establishing strong partnerships with US distributors and retailers to increase their market share in North America. To do this, exporters should invest in quality assurance programs and certifications tailored to US standards, such as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Organic certification, to meet consumer expectations. Strengthening the cold chain logistics and developing consistent shipping routes will ensure reliable deliveries. Collaborating with US-based marketing firms to build brand recognition and demand could further boost Kenya’s presence, positioning it as a competitive alternative to Mexico in the long term.
Sources: Tridge, APEAM, Business Now, California Avocado Commission, Eldiario, Redagricola, USDA
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