May 2025 Outlook Report: Coffee, Sugar, Tea, and Cocoa

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Trade4go

May 15th, 2025

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 2,045.93 per 40-foot container in Apr-25, marking a 6.87% month-on-month (MoM) drop and a 15.61% year-on-year (YoY) decrease, primarily driven by the United States (US)-China trade tensions. Meanwhile, the World Bank's Fertilizer Index averaged 129.25 points, marking a 0.66% MoM increase, driven by higher prices for diammonium phosphate (DAP) and potassium chloride, which more than offset the decline in urea prices. - Coffee: Brazilian Arabica and Robusta prices are forecast to remain soft due to a rebound in supply. In contrast, low domestic supply is expected to put upward pressure on Colombian prices in May-25. Vietnamese coffee prices are predicted to fluctuate due to external factors such as weather conditions and US trade policies. - Sugar: Improved crop prospects are expected to keep prices stable in India. Sugar prices in Brazil are expected to remain firm due to limited supply. - Tea: Indian tea prices are forecast to remain bullish in May-25 due to continued demand for premium early season offerings. Tridge predicts that tea prices in Kenya will remain low due to heightened supply levels, while Sri Lankan prices are expected to remain stable due to a recovery in production levels. - Cocoa: Tridge forecasts that cocoa prices will continue their downward trend in May-25. This bearish trend will likely persist due to a favorable supply outlook and low demand owing to the ongoing tariff situation in the US.