July 2025 Outlook Report: Meat

Other Fresh Pork Cuts Fresh Pork Ham & Shoulder Fresh Bone-In Beef Fresh Boneless Beef Other Frozen Beef Parts Other Frozen Pork Cuts Frozen Boneless Beef Frozen Bone-In Beef Frozen Chicken Cut Value Added Lamb Lamb Frozen Pork Ham & Shoulder Frozen Whole Chicken Fresh Whole Beef Meat Australia

Trade4go

Jul 18th, 2025

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,395.91 per 40-foot container in Jun-25, 59.90% higher month-on-month (MoM) but still 20.69% lower year-on-year (YoY), driven by frontloading ahead of expected tariff expirations. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Meat Price Index averaged 126.0 points in Jun-25, marking a 2.12% MoM increase, reflecting upward price trends across all major meat categories, except poultry. - Beef: Global beef export prices are projected to remain elevated in the coming months, driven by tight supplies and strong demand. In the United States (US), limited supply continues to support high prices, while Brazil's prices are driven by robust global demand and constrained availability both domestically and among major exporters. Similarly, Australia’s export prices are expected to stay firm, supported by strong international demand, global supply shortages, and the country's reputation for quality. In the European Union (EU), declining cattle inventories and steady demand are also likely to sustain upward pressure on prices. - Poultry: US poultry export prices are expected to rise in the coming months, driven by strong global demand, expanded market access, and a potential boost in exports to China. In Brazil, the regaining of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)-free status is likely to lead to the gradual removal of remaining trade bans, helping to stabilize prices and foster export growth. Meanwhile, EU poultry prices are anticipated to remain elevated, supported by sustained demand and the higher costs of alternative proteins, such as beef. - Pork: US pork export prices are expected to rise in the near term, fueled by improved access to the Chinese market and steady global demand. In Brazil, the appreciation of pork export prices is encouraging the industry to strengthen trade relations with both established and emerging markets. Meanwhile, in the EU, pork prices are anticipated to increase, driven by strong consumer demand for pork as a more affordable alternative to beef and chicken. - Lamb: New Zealand’s lamb export prices are expected to stay elevated in the coming months due to strong global demand and limited export availability caused by reduced slaughter activity. Similarly, Australia’s lamb export prices are likely to remain high, supported by ongoing global demand and constrained domestic supply due to processor shutdowns.