Soybeans: market remains focused on trade war after week of good movement

The Brazilian domestic soybean market has seen a decline in activity due to a holiday and producers waiting for better sales conditions, as futures contracts in Chicago have fallen and export premiums have decreased. Despite these factors, prices remain attractive due to the trade war between China and the United States. Brazil is expected to surpass 170 million tons in the 2024/25 harvest, with Mato Grosso seeing significant productivity gains, but other states are facing problems. The soybean meal and oil market in Brazil is showing little variation, and argentine harvest has started late due to rains, with strong volatility expected in international prices.

After a good week of activity, the domestic soybean market in Brazil has lost strength in recent days, partly due to the long holiday between Friday and Monday. According to the consulting firm Safras & Mercado, producers have chosen to temporarily withdraw from negotiations, waiting for better sales conditions. Futures contracts in Chicago fell, while the dollar remained relatively stable, fluctuating between R$5.85 and R$5.90. Export premiums also fell. Even so, amid the arrival of the Brazilian harvest and the uncertainty generated by the trade war between China and the United States, prices remain attractive to rural producers. According to Rafael Silveira, a consultant at Safras & Mercado, prices remain at attractive levels, but seller behavior has changed. “The spread requested by producers has increased. They are more cautious, paying attention to the international scenario. After taking advantage of good sales opportunities recently, they now prefer to wait for firmer ...