Olive oil is worth more than the price that appears on the shelf.

In recent years, the debate about olive oil has been dominated by a simple question: "Why is it so expensive?" The most immediate answer points to the drought in Spain. And it is true, because the extremely dry years in Andalusia have reduced production, pressured the global supply, and caused historic price increases. Olive oil in Portugal is following suit. But beyond the scarcity, the sector is affected by volatility, which usually happens around this time, and which ends up exposing deep-rooted weaknesses that go far beyond climate change. In the last month, alerts from industry organizations in Spain began to appear warning of the risk of premature price drops, based on still uncertain forecasts about future harvests. The Olivérica association, for example, even called for greater coordination among operators to avoid speculative movements and commercial decisions based on unconfirmed estimates of the 2026/27 campaign. The organization argues that prices should reflect the ...