China: Soybean production and import outlook for 2025

China's soybean production is forecasted to slightly decrease from the previous marketing year, with a projected growth in demand as consumers shift towards more efficient protein sources like poultry and aquatic products. Soybean imports for the following year are expected to increase by 2%, but retaliatory tariffs have been imposed on U.S. soybeans and Canadian rapeseed meal and oil. The Chinese government is encouraging the use of domestic oilseeds and offering financial incentives to boost self-sufficiency, as a way to reduce reliance on imports and support local producers.

China's soybean production in marketing year (MA) 24/46 is forecast at 19.8 million metric tons (MMT), slightly below MA 24/25. The growth rate of soybean demand is expected to slow as Chinese consumers shift from pork to more feed-efficient protein sources such as poultry and aquatic products. Soybean imports for FY25/26 are forecast at 106 MMT, up 2% from the previous year. In recent weeks, Beijing has imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans and Canadian rapeseed meal and oil. Estimated import demand for most oilseeds and oilseed products in FY24/25 will be lower than the average of recent years due to strong domestic oilseed production and continued economic headwinds facing the economy. The Chinese government continues to support domestic oilseed production through policy signals and financial incentives, as an effort to improve self-sufficiency. The Chinese government intervened in the market, trying to slow down soybean ...