August 2025 Outlook Report: Oils

August 2025 Outlook Report: Grains

Record harvest, big imports – yet rice prices jump 11%-16% YoY

Despite record Boro rice production in Bangladesh, prices have sharply increased by 10-16% compared to last year. This is impacting low-income families, and is attributed to market manipulation by traders who stockpile rice, leaving the government with insufficient reserves to stabilize prices. While the government imported a significant amount of rice and claims to be addressing the issue, the high prices persist due to factors like increased input costs, post-harvest losses, and supply chain disruptions. Experts criticize the lack of effective market intervention and regulatory oversight.

Numerous markets to increase cashew exports

Vietnam's cashew exports to the US have dropped significantly due to a 10% US import tariff, resulting in a 25% decrease in volume and a 4.2% decrease in value in April 2025 compared to April 2024. However, exports to China have surged, increasing by 127% in volume and 130% in value in April 2025 compared to March 2025. Other markets like the Netherlands, UAE, Japan, Philippines, India, and Turkey are also showing strong growth. While the US market presents challenges, Vietnam's cashew industry is diversifying into promising markets like China, the EU, and Australia, mitigating the impact of US tariffs.

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